Workshops, Lecture Notes, Code, [Possibly Old] Teaching, and Ad-Hoc Stuff...
These are some selected presentations, notes, lecture notes, or software code based on past seminars and workshops given in the past.
Please note, that materials from the IMF Technical Assistance (TA) missions are not publicly available.
Slides, papers, and code for other papers can be found most likely at "Recent Work" section of this website...
Disclaimer:
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.
Please note, that materials from the IMF Technical Assistance (TA) missions are not publicly available.
Slides, papers, and code for other papers can be found most likely at "Recent Work" section of this website...
Disclaimer:
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.
Of Models and Cakes (Czech National Bank's IFT Modeling Seminar, Dec 2017)
Slides [pdf] The lecture focuses on selected issues related to economic modeling in central banks. In particular, it focuses on "forecasting with judgement". Technically, forecasting with judgement is trivial. However, the behavioral and psychological aspects of forecasting with judgement are largely ignored in macroeconomic literature. The lecture points out systematic biases in forming judgement and ways of using models to defend ourselves against the natural tendency to fool ourselves. The lecture also provides advice on how to kick-off modeling in a policy institutions, in a "learning-by-doing" way.
Technical side of forecasting with judgement is described in materials below, or in here [pdf] (explains IRIS endogenize/exogenize).
Technical side of forecasting with judgement is described in materials below, or in here [pdf] (explains IRIS endogenize/exogenize).
System Priors for Dynare (July 2017)
Due to a wide-spread usage of the DYNARE toolbox, I created a simple code to use system priors in Dynare. [spriors4dynare.zip] System priors are extension of commonly-used marginal-independent priors, allowing researchers to elicit prior about any computable feature of a model.
Advanced Macro-Modeling Workshop, Centraal Planbureau, the Netherlands (Sept. 2016)
Three-day workshop on Advanced Practical Macro-Modeling withe amazing CPB modeling team. Only selected topics covered in slides, focused on four topics: (i) Model Design Choices [DSGE-Light], (ii) Empirical Validation of Structural Models, (iii) Forecasting with Judgment, and (iv) Assessing the Initial State of the Economy.
Materials:
Solution techniques and stack-time, empirical validation [pdf] System priors [pdf], DSGE Filters [pdf], Estimating Structural Shocks [pdf]
Materials:
Solution techniques and stack-time, empirical validation [pdf] System priors [pdf], DSGE Filters [pdf], Estimating Structural Shocks [pdf]
Applied Macroeconomic Modeling Program (IMF 2011/2012)
Material for two-semeter, graduate-level program at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), taught jointly with Jaromir Benes.
Participants included economists from central banks in Armenia, Georgia, Indonesia, Philippines,... As of 2016 most of the graduates have become head of departments etc. in their central banks.
Selected materials for DOWNLOAD.
Participants included economists from central banks in Armenia, Georgia, Indonesia, Philippines,... As of 2016 most of the graduates have become head of departments etc. in their central banks.
Selected materials for DOWNLOAD.
Building and Employing Small Open Economy Models:
International Monetary Fund (IMF) ICD/RES Joint Seminar (March 10-11, 2011, Washington D.C.)
Ad-hoc Seminars, Workshops, or Presentations related to CNB's g3 DSGE Model
- South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Nov 3 to Nov 7, 2008, Technical Assistance Workshop [pdf]
- European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt, Presentation of the CNB's new forecasting model [pdf]
- New Forecasting Model of the Czech National Bank, August 15 2008, Meeting with Analysts [pdf]
- Simple Tools for Monetary Policy Modeling with DSGE Models, CNB Workshop Nov. 24--26, 2008 [pdf]
IRIS Toolbox Notes and mostly unothorized quasi-documentation
These are mostly OLD notes I created for my personal use years back, describing some algorithms and their implementations
in various issues of Iris Tbx by Jaromir Benes.
My Iris Toolbox Tutorials: (also available here: https://code.google.com/p/iris-toolbox-project/wiki/Michals)
in various issues of Iris Tbx by Jaromir Benes.
- Solution of linearized Rational Expectations (DSGE) models with forward expansions [pdf]
- Simulation of linearized REH with anticipated shocks and constraints on endogenous variables [pdf]
- State-Space form and Kalman filter (nonstationarity, missing obs....) [pdf] and [pdf]
My Iris Toolbox Tutorials: (also available here: https://code.google.com/p/iris-toolbox-project/wiki/Michals)
- Expert Judgement & Filter Tunes in State-Space Models [zip], October 2012
- Using IRIS State-Space Form -- Essentials (I.) [zip] A primer on how to obtain, understand and use models linear state-space form computed by IRIS. A simple simulation is coded and compared with IRIS |simulate| command. Having full control over the state-space form is a first step towards writing user-defined computations and doing research.
- Exact Nonlinear Filter for DSGE models -- a tutorial for struct. shok estimation [zip]
- TsEDIT -- Visual editing of IRIS Time Series and Matlab Vectors (Matlab GUI) [zip]
- AiM2IRIS -- Converting AiM models to IRIS [zip]
- User-defined Figures in IRIS Report [zip], October 2012
Ad-hoc MATLAB Codes...
- TsEDIT -- Visual editing of IRIS Time Series and Matlab Vectors (Matlab GUI) [zip] Allows to plot a vector or an IRIS time series, use the mouse to modify the values of the series and save into a new series. Also known as "the ultimate forecasting device"...
University of Economics, Prague
- Macroeconomics [syllabus]
- Economic Policy [syllabus]
