I am an economist and mission chief at the International Monetary Fund, deputy chief in General Macro and Fiscal Division.
My research focuses on asset pricing, statistical learning, and dynamic macroeconomics. My latest research projects are about house prices, stock market valuation, and risk assessment. It has been used in the IMF's World Economic Outlooks, Article-IV Consultations, by multiple central banks or the European Commission.
From 2020 to 2022 I worked as a senior desk for the IMF's Canada team, focusing on Canada's monetary and fiscal response to the pandemic, and for the Honduras team, participating in the IMF program negotiations.
While at the IMF's Research Department, from 2010--2020, I contributed to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) and other key products of the Fund: Article-IV analyses, External Stability Reports, G20 work, G-RAMs, ...). I contributed to developing the IMF's global models FSGM, GIMF, and New GPM. I provided technical assistance on building Forecasting and Analysis Policy Systems (FPAS) to many central banks (Armenia, Georgia, Indonesia, Philippines, South Africa,...).
In June 2020, I coordinated IMF Research Dept.'s internal global forecast. This historical forecast was a response to the Covid-19 crisis, quantifying the role of domestic disruptions, global trade and financial spillovers, and effects of fiscal and financial policies in an internally-consistent framework of IMF's G20 model. Underlying the domestic disruptions forecast layer was the IMF's Pandemic Impact Framework, I developed early in March 2020. This has changed the way the RES forecast works now.
Before joining the IMF Research Dept., I had the privilege to work and build models with the teams at the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank (NAWM team), and at the Czech Ministry of Finance.
At the Czech National Bank, I helped to develop and implement the CNB's core forecasting model of the bank "g3" and contributed to redesigning the forecasting system. The modeling framework proved resilient in the crises, lasted for over eleven years at the bank, and with some adjustments is still being used today... (And yes, I'm responsible for the stupid "g3" name...)
I started with economic policy at the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic (MFCR) in Department of Financial Policies. There I was responsible for economic modeling, fiscal projections, and contributions to Pre-Accession Economics Programs [to EU] and later to Convergence Programs. I was a member of Output Gap Working Group in Brussels (OGWG) by the European Commission.
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